MyDD :: Why this won't go to the convention

Why this won't go to the convention

by wiscogirl101, Sat May 31, 2008 at 11:16:49 PM EST

I find it amusing to see some people both here and on the news say that Hillary should take it to the convention. And yes, I know Hillary said she 'reserves the right" to take it to the credentials committee.

But lets be realistic here. The MI plan was approved by 2/3rds of the RBC committee. Not only did all the Obama supporters, but the undeclared, and even a few (between 3-5) Hillary supporters voted for this 29-34 MI delegation.

Thats 67% of that committee. Not 50%+1, but 67%. A supermajority, basically. I think most understand that the full convention wouldn't overturn the RBC decision, as most Democrats want to focus on the November election.

Also, I agree with a prior poster about supporters and 'supporters'. You always have cranks on every side, who are more about hating the opponent than supporting the issues. Thats just a given.

But anyway, we still have PR, MT, and SD to vote in the next few days. After that, I suspect Hillary will wrap this up, take a few days off, endorse Obama, and we all can get back to winning in November.

As far as the 'supporters', well, it is a waste of time to participate in meaningful dialogue with them.

Most Hillary supporters I know (example..my grandparents, several co-workers, and a few friends), intend to vote for Obama in the GE. I only know of 1 person who preferred Hillary but might vote for McCain..and that was because she wanted to see a female become president, and honestly didn't care about the issues.

But..um..yes. This 'reserve the right to take it to the convention', I suspect is only a bone to throw to her hard-core supporters for the time being, until things settle down. She won't actually do it.

Tags: Clinton, Obama, Convention, Michigan (all tags)

Permalink :: 44 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Why this won't go to the convention (none / 0)

No money, no money, no money....

by ArtVanDelay1774 on Sat May 31, 2008 at 11:18:25 PM EST

Re: Why this won't go to the convention (none / 0)

Well, there is that too.

AnnMarie

by wiscogirl101 on Sat May 31, 2008 at 11:21:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why this won't go to the convention (2.00 / 2)

I agree. Hillary is smart enough to realize that no purpose is served by fighting a losing war for two months. And mark my words -- this will end next week.

"If we can't live together... we're going to die alone."

by VAAlex on Sat May 31, 2008 at 11:23:50 PM EST

Re: Why this won't go to the convention (2.00 / 1)

I believe it will end next week too. I understand why Clinton supporters are angry and upset, I would be just as bad off if Obama were in her position right now.

I know its still too early for unity talk, but for what's it worth this Obama supporter apologizes for anything stupid or inappropriate he said during the heat of battle.

by Xris on Sat May 31, 2008 at 11:27:47 PM EST

Hillary doesn't care (none / 0)

she doesn't see her future, she only sees the present. She'll go the convention. She'll get humilated there and her career with reach an inglorious end. The party will stop walking on eggshells for her and will throw down the gauntlet.

Unfortunatley, it will turn off her voters and Obama will probably lose in November, but her career will be over.

Also sad, there will never be a woman president now that Hillary will destroy it for them.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Sat May 31, 2008 at 11:28:11 PM EST

Re: Hillary doesn't care (2.00 / 1)

Naturally I disagree with this and believe we'll have a woman President within the next 20-30 years. Hillary will be remembered as a trailblazer on that (I wrote a diary on this subject a few weeks ago).

Thats another reason why I believe she won't take it to the convention.

AnnMarie

by wiscogirl101 on Sat May 31, 2008 at 11:29:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

But see (none / 0)

you're assuming Hillary cares about these things, she doesn't. She only cares about the next five months. She is not thinking about the future, her future, women's futures, the nation's future. She's not going to have one of those Howard Dean moments.

If she gets out after Tuesday, she'll be seen as a trailblazer.

If she goes to the convention (and being on the inside of New York politics, I can tell you, every expects her too), she will be seen as a spoiler and every woman who runs in the future will be compared to her; "Will she do what Hillary did?"

Trust me, I am willing to bet money that she will take this to Denver...she will lose...big...and the party will be done with her and will try to get her out, but as long as people are still voting for her, coming to her rallies, threatening to bolt the party if she doesn't win, she will keep going.

She truly believes she controls the party, that the party lives or dies with her. She really believes that. The party can only win with her.

Take it from someone who works in the NY media, knows New York politicians and superdelegats...she is not going anywhere and the party will try to stop her, but won't be able to until Denver.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Sat May 31, 2008 at 11:35:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: But see (none / 0)

I would take that bet, if for no other reason than the fact that she is in huge debt and can't really afford to campaign any more. Certainly not for another 3 months.

by ProgressiveDL on Sat May 31, 2008 at 11:36:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

We thought the same thing (none / 0)

in March.

If she drops out before Denver, I'd be shocked. I believed she would until a few weeks ago, when I met and talked to a couple of superdelegates and their staff here in New York...they, took, would be shocked if she dropped out.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Sat May 31, 2008 at 11:38:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

and I can tell you (none / 0)

that many NY politicians, even her own superdelegates, are trying behind the scenes to get her out.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Sat May 31, 2008 at 11:38:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: and I can tell you (none / 0)

I don't believe the whole "ruthless ambition at any cost" meme that gets spun about her. I think she is very ambitious, I think she wants to have something to show for this (VP? At least a very close 2nd place?) in order to create a legacy for future women candidates. I think she is a fantastic politician and I think she genuinely wants to help people. None of these things match up with a destructive run to the convention.

by ProgressiveDL on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 09:07:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I didn't believe it either (none / 0)

unless two weeks ago.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 01:06:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: But see (none / 0)

Well, I really hope and believe you're wrong. I know you're from New York, but I just have a difficult time believing she'll take it to the convention.

At some point, most people realize there are things bigger than themselves.

AnnMarie

by wiscogirl101 on Sat May 31, 2008 at 11:49:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Not her (none / 0)

seriously, I loved her up until literally a month ago. She basically told our governor to fuck off when he tried to tell her it's going to be over soon.

The sad truth is Hillary Clinton really does not care about anyone else but her. She really believes she is the only person who can govern this country, so she has to do everything she can to make sure that happens. It is all about her.

She will not win the nomination, but she will not go quietly and even New Yorkers are turning against her fast.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Sat May 31, 2008 at 11:52:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

there's no issue left (none / 0)

what will she do once she arrives at Denver? There will be no issue.

Once the supers declare, Obama's lead will be insurmountable.

At the convention, with an insurmountable lead, MI and FL's delegations will be fully seated, putting Obama over the top, in a dramatic roll call motion.

even regarding florida, she agreed to the ruling - it was unanimous.

is she going to campaign for 3 months for the 4 Michigan delegates, when even Carl Levin and the Michigan state party engineered the ruling.

"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!

by Al Rodgers on Sat May 31, 2008 at 11:56:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Like I said (none / 0)

she will be humilated in Denver...she will lose big and she will be marginalized by the party

but by then, it'll be too late for Obama to unite the party and win.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Sat May 31, 2008 at 11:59:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Like I said (none / 0)

Even if she does take this to the convention, she will have lost the moral high ground now that the MI/FL thing is settled. Even if she keeps claiming the popular vote, the supers haven't cared so far, so I don't see them suddenly waking up and saying "Oh crap, she won the popular vote?? THis is the first I've heard of it!"

Even if she keeps running, Obama will mostly ignore her and concentrate on McCain. It's not perfect, and it will make his chances slightly harder, but I think he will still pull it out.

by ProgressiveDL on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 09:09:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I'm not so certain (none / 0)

when all the Clinton supporters whine and moan that she's been disrespected because Obama and the MSM ignored her and the party leff her, are they going to turn out for Obama in the fall?

I don't think they will. After months of celebrating all the new Democrats Obama has brought into the party, there is one factor we forget, all the Demcorats who will leave.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 01:08:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: But see (none / 0)

Sadly I agree with you - but I am hoping enough people on the inside of her campaign jump ship to prevent it.

by interestedbystander on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 03:53:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary doesn't care (2.00 / 1)

I agree with both points. I fervently hope we have a woman president (Hillary perhaps?) in 8 years, hopefully after 2 terms of Obama.

I think the only reason Hillary would even be interested in the VP slot at all would be as a way to create a legacy as the first female VP. She must know it would be awkward after this primary (and with Bill patrolling the hallways), and that she would get much more done as a Senator.

by ProgressiveDL on Sat May 31, 2008 at 11:35:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I think she's going to the convention too... (none / 0)

I just think though, she'll probably step aside for a while, maybe go on vacation before deciding her next course of action.

Barack may have his hands full as of monday anyway.

It's an election, not an auction.

by cosbo on Sat May 31, 2008 at 11:34:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I think she's going to the convention too... (none / 0)

And what does that mean...'hands full on Monday"????

AnnMarie

by wiscogirl101 on Sat May 31, 2008 at 11:49:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

lets just say.. (none / 0)

Michelle is very satisfied with Barack ;-)

"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!

by Al Rodgers on Sat May 31, 2008 at 11:57:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I think she's going to the convention too... (none / 0)

Well, duh. Of course she'll be at the convention, having thrown in her support with Senator Obama long before.

Hooray for John McCain!

by ragekage on Sat May 31, 2008 at 11:50:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary doesn't care (none / 0)

Just like Ted Kennedy? He wasn't even close to Jimmy Carter, but he knew Carter would lose so he went. And what is he now? She has ever right to take it to the convention, and history is on her side. Never in the history of our party has any candidate earned as my pledged delegates as she has and not taken it to the convention.

by nyarch on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 02:01:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why this won't go to the convention (none / 0)

Tomorrow night..in her PR victory speech...she will say something about NY.
Between PR, SD's declaring on Monday and Tuesday and MT and S.Dakota Obama will have crossed the new threshold and declare victory at the Xcel Center on Tuesday night. It will be a gracious speech of healing and unity...and a determination to defeat Bush/McWars.

I suspect Sen. Clinton will concede just prior to his speech. The remaining SD's will all go for Obama on Wed.

come together...(no, really!)

mash on..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bM7tdWRkB p0

"harlequin speech of suicide, demanding instantaneous lobotomy"

by nogo postal on Sat May 31, 2008 at 11:41:03 PM EST

To quote Bill... (none / 0)

"That's a faery tale!"

Prediction: (The same prediction I made a few days ago) She'll suspend her campaign in the next couple of weeks. She'll reserve the right to do whatever she wishes in Denver. It's all about leaving her options open (looking at it from their viewpoint). To do anything else would be foolish.

This is the most closely contest Dem Primary, perhaps ever. People have forced a showdown at the Convention with far, far less leverage.

If you think Hillary's pissed, I'll bet Bill's three times as pissed-off. For that matter, I can almost hear Bill from way over here!

LOL!

This thing isn't over, regardless of whether you or me or anyone else wants to speculate otherwise.

There will be blood...it might be behind the scenes...but there will be blood.

This has nothing to do with my sentiments, whatsoever. It's just what's going to happen; and, again, we have no control over this. And, anyone here that thinks we do is foolish.

by bobswern on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 12:35:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: To quote Bill... (none / 0)

Well, Bob, I suspect you're right. She'll suspend her campaign, and throw her support in for Senator Obama, and encourage her supporters to do so at well. But something dramatic will have to happen between then and now to shift that dynamic- and if it does, of course we'll tap Senator Clinton.

But there won't be any "blood", methinks, unless it's between the people on the Clinton campaign staff. Sounds like that's been going on since Day One, though.

Hooray for John McCain!

by ragekage on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 12:49:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

She could use it to fight for party chair (2.00 / 1)

(meaning get one of her allies in DNC chair) or other concessions. You use delegates to negotiate for the direction the party should go in.

Obama is not acting like he wants unity.

by catfish2 on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 12:28:51 AM EST

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